Wednesday, 21 October 2009

  • Financial Myths...Busted


    Kiplinger.com did an article awhile ago busting 10 financial myths that they updated last month. They point out that many principles that were a safe, constant comfort in the world of finance may not hold true anymore. From markets to credit scores, they address a variety of "facts". Quoted from their article, here are  7 of the myths and the truth behind them:

    MYTH 1: There's always a hot market somewhere.
    Truth: In this age of globalization, economic downturns and bear markets observe no borders.

    MYTH 2: Real estate behaves differently from other investments.
    Truth: Real estate won't overcome other risks when credit problems are harming all investments.

    MYTH 3. Reliable dividend payers are safer than other stocks.
    Truth: Companies aren't too proud to stop increasing dividends. If you want stable dividends, ignore the past and look for companies with lots of cash flow. 

    MYTH 4. Foreign creditors can drain the U.S. Treasury overnight.

    Truth:
    If what you want is super-safe bonds, the U.S. Treasury is the go-to place.

    MYTH 5. Gold is the best place to hide in a lousy economy.
    Truth: Gold tends to rally in prosperous times, when you have inflation, easy credit and flush buyers (kind of reminds you of real estate).

    MYTH 6. Life insurance is not a good investment
    Truth: A good investment is one in which you put money away now and have more later. Checked your 401(k) lately?

    MYTH 7. The economic downturn dooms the dollar to irrelevance.
    Truth: The dollar has survived a tough test and remains the world's "reserve" currency.

    To see the other 3 myths, along with detailed explanations of all 10, check out the original post here:
    http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2009/04/ten-financial-myths-busted.html?kipad_id=2?kipad_id=2

    Have you heard of these myths before?  Are there anymore out there you can "bust"?

Comments (7)

  • SoullFire@xanga

    A lot of these myths trace back to people looking for investing "shortcuts" rather than actually doing their homework to find a good investment.

    Another myth: Buy and Hold will always work as a good investment method.

  • jamesparker

    Hi

    Great information for us.

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  • jamesparker
  • ProudToBeAChristianFruitcake@xanga

    @SoullFire@xanga -  Actually buying stock and holding it for a period of five or more years, will on average, always earn you a return.

  • SoullFire@xanga

    @ProudToBeAChristianFruitcake@xanga - Buy and hold will only be effective in an extended "Bull Market" such as we have experienced. Buy and hold will destroy your account in an extended "Bear Market", which many economists say we are in now.

    For a safeguard, one must limit losses on their accounts, which means taking a more active role than buy, hold, and forget.

  • ProudToBeAChristianFruitcake@xanga

    @SoullFire@xanga - no, buy and hold works in either market.


    Let's say I bought 10 shares of walmart in 2007 back when the market was 14k. The ten shares of walmart cost me $60 for a grand total of $600 worth of stock.  Now the stockmarket went into free fall, but walmart actually held pretty steady because right now a share of walmart is trading at $50.35 which gives my shares a value of $503.50  If I pull out now and cut my losses,  then I will loose $96.50.


    But the stock market just crossed 10k the other day, and is in a slow climb back out. why would I want to leave now and lose the $96.50? I haven't actually lost the money yet, I have lost value, I don't lose the money, until I pull out and take the loss of value. I want to stay in, and hope for it to go back up.


    If everyone took losses back when the stock market was below 10k, then everyone lost money, those who waited for it to go above 10k, have seen improvement in the stock value. Investing is buying stock, and holding for at least 5 years. everything else, and day trading in particular is not investing, it is gambling.

  • SoullFire@xanga

    @ProudToBeAChristianFruitcake@xanga - You bring up several common perceptions about "buy and hold", which can be added to the list of myths.

    You used Walmart stock as an example, but what if AIG or GM stock was used? AIG is still suffering huge declines from it's 2007 high, and GM went bankrupt. A better gauge is an index like S&P 500 or DJ30 which reflects the overall market in general.

    If you bought a certain stock at $50/share and the price declines to $40/share, did you lose any money? How about if it drops to $20/share? You say no, that you've only lost value- but that's inaccurate, although many people believe this. Value is equivalent to money. If your cash out value decreases, then for all intent and purposes you've lost money. Using your logic, the stock can drop to 1 cent and you would say that until you actually cash out, haven't lost any money, but that's obviously not that case.

    The bottom line is "buy and hold" is no substitute for proper risk management. Letting a stock go from $50 to 1 cent in the hopes that it will eventually recover reflects very poor financial management. The same thing can be said for anyone who did nothing with their investment accounts when the market was at 14K and continued to do nothing as it dropped to 6.5K in march of this year. You say doing nothing wasn't a big deal since the market recovered to 10k again, but neither you nor I knew what the market was going to do back in March. We can't invest in the past. It the market continued lower to 5K and stayed there, would you still feel good about holding onto your investments from 14K?

    Another example are those who bought tech stock near Nasdaq "5000" and held onto it. It's been over 10 years and the Nasdaq is still less than half that value.

    As I've stated "buy and hold" will not work if the market continues to trend lower for an extended time. If the market continues to trend higher, then it's not an extended Bear market. An extended Bear market will see the market head back down again and make new lows. Buy and hold in that situation will just have your net value continue to drop.

    At a certain point, there will not be enough time for you to wait for the market to restore your lost money.

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